Voter Turnout in Congressional Midterm Elections

3rd September 2018

FAST FACTS

4% of eligible voters turned out (the lowest turnout in over 70 years)
Turnout increased in 14 states (Louisiana saw the biggest increase (+12.9%) and Oregon saw the smallest increase (+0.2%)
Turnout decreased in 36 states (some of the biggest decreases included Missouri (-27.4%), California (25.5%) and Alabama (-22.1%)
7 states had over 50% turnout, including Maine (59.3%), Wisconsin (56.9%), Alaska (55.3%), Colorado (53%), Oregon (52.7%), Minnesota (51.3%) and Iowa (50.6%)
7 states had less than 30% turnout, including Indiana (28%), Texas (28.5%), Utah (28.8%), Tennessee (29.1%), New York (29.5%), Mississippi (29.7%) and Oklahoma (29.8%)

Read our blog post: 2018 US Midterms – Congressional Election Guides

Turnout varies greatly by state and district, partly due to the extent to which the election is competitive. This is often more true in presidential elections where voters in “safe” red and blue states often have less motivation to turnout than those in swing states. However, this trend can also be seen in congressional elections; often open seats are more competitive and see a larger turnout, whereas turnout in “safe” districts with incumbents often see lower turnouts. For example, the biggest variation in the 2014 midterm elections was between Maine (59.3% turnout) and Indiana (28% turnout) with a difference of over 30%. Furthermore, differences between state voting legislation can also have an impact on voter turnout. Anything from voter registration laws, voter identification laws, early voting and polling place accessibility can inversely affect turnout in states and districts.

Read our blog post: 2018 US Midterms – Why do incumbents have an advantage?

Turnout is also affected by the demographics of the population of a state or district, with certain groups much more likely to turn out to vote than others. Generally, regular voters tend to be older, wealthier, more educated and ‘whiter’ than the average American. Young people are much less likely to voter than older people, and in 2014 young Americans aged between 18-29 accounted for 13%, down from 19% in the presidential election two years before. Race and ethnicity, gender and socio-economic status are next three biggest influences on voter turnout, with white, female, middle class voters, the most likely to turnout.

For those that don’t turnout to vote, the biggest question is why? Analysis by the Pew Research Center found that 35% of non-voters cited work or school commitments, which prevented them from voting, 34% said they were too busy, unwell, away from home or forgot to vote, 20% either didn’t like the choices, didn’t know enough or didn’t care and 10% had recently moved, missed a registration deadline or didn’t have transportation. The New York Times counts apathy, anger and frustration at the relentlessly negative tone of the campaigns as the reasons of low turnout and stated, “Neither party gave voters an affirmative reason to show up at the polls.”

Read our article from FairVote.org on What affects voter turnout?

It is useful to compare midterm elections to identify patterns and trends in voting behaviour and voter turnout, however it must also be remembered that each midterm election occurs in a unique political context – meaning that some comparisons may be interesting, but not always the most useful. For example, reasons to vote in 2014 were heavily influenced by the legacy the Obama presidency was going to leave on issues such as healthcare, the growing threat of Islamic State and a recovering economy. However, this should not be overestimated; 45% of voters stated that Obama was not a factor in their decision to vote, or how they voted, 19% stated they voted to support Obama and 33% stated they voted to oppose Obama. Similarly, looking forward to the 2018 midterms, will the Trump presidency be influencing people to vote and how to vote? Or will its impact be exaggerated by critics of the president? Can we consider the midterms a referendum on the Trump presidency?

There are typical issues that voters care about that can be easily predicted as the top issues in an election. It is unsurprising that, when asked what influenced voters in 2014 the top issues for people were the economy (45%), foreign policy (13%), healthcare (25%) and illegal immigration (14%). Similarly, these issues will be key in the 2018 midterm elections, but we could predict that after the issue of immigration may be of more importance than it was in 2014, given Trump’s rhetoric and executive orders on immigration policy. We could also foresee that foreign policy, in particular relations with Russia and North Korea, will be of a concern to voters, along with the usual issue of jobs and the economy.

Use our Powerpoint to revise What affects the outcomes of congressional elections?

Quite often voters can be influenced to turnout or to vote for a particular party based on the success, or perceived success, of policies over the previous two years. For example, 48% of voters felt that Obamacare had gone too far, whilst only 25% felt it didn’t go far enough – perhaps contributing to the Democrats losing the Senate majority. On the issue of the economy in 2014, 33% of voters felt the economy was improving and 32% felts it was getting worse – a position that is likely to be heavily influenced by their own personal experience and economic prosperity. Despite partisan politics being on the rise in Washington DC, some policies have more universal support; for example in 2014, 58% of voters approved of Obama’s response and actions against Islamic State in the Middle East. Looking forward to the 2018 midterm elections, it is likely that the success of Trump’s first two years as president will be a significant factor in both turnout and behaviour of voters. With controversial immigration travel bans being struck down, and more recently upheld by the Supreme Court, and the continuing scandal of separating families in detention centres – immigration will be high on the list of issues for voters. Coupled with the lack of agreement on a healthcare plan which highlighted divisions within the Republican party, this may be harshly judged by undecided or swing voters who feel ‘things just aren’t getting done’. In addition, Trump’s recent Supreme Court nominee may affect voting behaviour and turnout if he is not confirmed before the midterms.