On 23^rd June 2016, Britain voted to leave the European Union in a nationwide referendum, with 52% of people voting “Leave”. The Prime Minister at the time, David Cameron, had campaigned to “Remain” in the EU, and announced his resignation on the following day. This triggered a leadership election within the Conservative Party. After the initial stages, the only other competitor, Andrea Leadsom, withdrew from the leadership election, and Theresa May was announced as the new leader of the Conservative Party, and was then appointed as Prime Minister on 13^th July 2016 to become the UK’s second female PM. As May was essentially ‘unelected’ some called for a general election to confirm her mandate, these calls were largely ignored.

Key Events of Premiership 2016-2017

• Delayed approval of Hinkley nuclear power station due to concerns over links with China (May had opposed this when she was Home Secretary)
• Defended selling arms to Saudi Arabia, despite human rights abuses and involvement in regional conflicts such as Yemen, due to intelligence and security benefits of the relationship
• Continued government policy of freezing benefits
• Manchester bombing (May was criticised for overseeing an 18% cut in police forces when she was home secretary that meant counter-terrorism and intelligence services were weakened)
• Supreme Court ruled that parliament does require a vote on the decision to leave the EU
• Brexit strategy largely unclear and criticised by many within her own party
• Refused to condemn Donald Trump’s ‘Muslim ban’
• Criticised for inviting President Trump to a state visit in the UK

2017 General Election

Theresa May surprised the public when she announced in April 2017 that she wanted to hold an early election, contrary to her previous statements that there would not be an election until 2020. Part of her decision was based on the upcoming Brexit negotiations and the need to have a mandate from the electorate to negotiate an exit package and future relationship with the EU, in addition to the hope of increasing her majority to prevent any divisions with the Conservative party defeating any future votes on Brexit.

The election was held on 8^th June 2017. Rather than increase her majority, Theresa May had her majority reduced with the Conservative party losing seats and Labour gaining seats. Although the Conservatives remained the largest party, they no longer had an absolute majority, which questioned whether May could even legitimately remain as Prime Minister. Over the next two weeks there were a series of meetings and negotiations before Theresa May announced that she had reached a ‘supply and demand’ type agreement between the Conservative Party and the DUP to maintain a Conservative-led government in parliament.

Conservative-DUP Agreement

This arrangement allowed Theresa May to maintain a minority Conservative government that would be supported in legislation by the DUP, described as a type of “contract parliamentarianism”. The agreement outlined that the DUP would support the Conservative minority government on all votes in parliament related to all motions of confidence, the Queen’s speech, all finance, money and budget bills, as well as legislation regarding national security and Brexit.

In order to reach this agreement, Theresa May made several promises and concessions to the DUP on key policy areas where the two political parties agree. For example, maintaining the union of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, adhering to the Good Friday Agreement, no referendum on Northern Ireland’s constitutional crisis and to work towards the formation a new executive in the government of Northern Ireland. She also had to drop her manifesto commitments to reform pensions and the winter fuel allowance. Theresa May was also widely criticised for agreeing an extra £1 billion of funding for Northern Ireland, with some describing it as a ‘bribe’ to the DUP. Any votes on policies or issues not specifically listed in the agreement were to be decided on a case by case basis.

Key Events of Premiership 2017-2018

• In June 2017, the Grenfell Tower firebroke out in a 24-storey tower block in North Kensington, West London. It caused 72 deaths and 70 people were injured with 223 people having escaped. May was criticised for not meeting survivors, as well as the lack of government regulation for fire safety.
• In December 2017, a report surfaced that MI5, the British domestic intelligence agency, had foiled a terrorist plot to assassinate May. According to the report, two men were planning to use improvised explosives to blow up the gate at the prime minister’s residence and to kill her in the ensuing chaos. The two suspects were arrested in late November.
• Parliament rejected May’s request for maximum leeway in negotiating terms of departure from the EU by voting that any final deal needs to be submitted via legislation – severely restricting her leverage in Brexit negotiations.

Windrush Scandal

It emerged in March 2018 that many people of the Windrush generation had been wrongly detained, denied legal rights, threatened with deportation, and, in around 63 cases, wrongly deported from the UK by the Home Office. Many of those affected had been born British subjects and had arrived in the UK before 1973, particularly from Caribbean countries.

As well as those who were wrongly deported, an unknown number were wrongly detained, lost their jobs or homes, or were denied benefits or medical care to which they were entitled.  May was heavily criticised as she had been Home Secretary between 2010 and 2016 when this was occurring and had implemented a “hostile environment policy” in the hope that people without approval to remain in the UK indefinitely would voluntarily leave. The scandal led to the resignation of Amber Rudd in April 2018, despite Theresa May being the architect of the policy during her time as Secretary.

Cabinet resignations

May’s premiership has also been marred by the instability in her cabinets with a host of resignations as a result of scandals and disagreements.

• Michael Fallon, Defence Secretary, has to resign in November 2017 after allegations of sexual misconduct
• Priti Patel, International Development Secretary, had to resign in November 2017 after she had held unsanctioned meetings with Israeli politicians whilst on holiday
• Damian Green, First Secretary of State, resigned in December 2017 after an inquiry found he had violated the Ministerial Code
• Amber Rudd, Home Secretary, resigned in April 2018 after a scandal about immigrant removal targets
• David Davis, Brexit Secretary, resigned in July 2018 due to his disagreements over the Prime Minister’s negotiations for Brexit
• Boris Johnson, Foreign Secretary, resigned in July 2018, also due to disagreements over the Prime Minister’s negotiations for Brexit

Read our blog post: Theresa May’s Cabinets and Individual Ministerial Responsibility

Prognosis: What next for Theresa May?

The future of Theresa May’s premiership appears to hang in the balance amid recent scandals, instability, and incompetency – so much so that many (even within her own party) are now calling for a vote of no confidence.

Some of the hardships of May’s premiership, are not self-inflicted; she was left to clean up the ‘mess’ that Cameron’s EU referendum left behind, and how history judges her leadership will inevitably be tied to history’s judgement on Brexit, for better or worse. Despite the gravity of Brexit, Theresa May has appeared to be unsure how to deal with Brexit, what she wants from Brexit and how to appease opposing factions within her own party – arguably something a more ardent Brexiteer may have been successful at. No one could have foreseen the terrible tragedies of Grenfell and the Manchester bombing, but as the party in government the Conservatives and May are the face of years of lax building regulations and of funding cuts to police and security services.

Other criticisms of May’s premiership, are absolutely self-inflicted wounds. The calling of a general election to strengthen her hand in Brexit negotiations and galvanise her own leadership, spectacularly failed; a mistake that she has to shoulder responsibility for. Similarly, some scandals such as the Windrush scandal also firmly place blame on May as individual, and on numerous occasions her hard-line policies as Home Secretary have returned to haunt her.