Incumbents are those who already hold elected office; for example, serving congressmen and senators.

Since 1970, 95% of incumbent house members who have sought re-election have won. On average in House elections, this incumbency rate is around 90%, with the incumbents winning with more than 60% of the vote. Few things in life are more predictable than the chances of an incumbent member of the U.S. House of Representatives winning reelection. With wide name recognition, and usually an insurmountable advantage in campaign cash, House incumbents typically have little trouble holding onto their seats. Senate races still overwhelmingly favour the incumbent, but not by as reliable a margin as House races. Big swings in the national mood can sometimes topple long time office-holders, as happened with the Reagan revolution in 1980. Even so, years like that are an exception.

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Advantages and Disadvantages of Incumbency

Advantages of incumbency

• Name recognition – “the name you know”
• Advertising – ads in newspapers and on television
• Credit claiming – servicing the constituency through casework and pork barrel
• Position taking – voting and responding to constituents’ questions
• Franking privilege
• Weak opponents – not well known or well qualified and lack experience and organizational and financial backing
• Campaign spending – the typical incumbent outspent the typical challenger by a ratio of more than 3 to 1 in races in 2008

Disadvantages

• Must defend voting record (especially if controversial, or demographics/opinion in district is changing)
• Challenger has no voting record to defend – can make promises the incumbent may not have been able to keep
• One tarnished by scandal or corruption becomes vulnerable to a challenger
• Redistricting may weaken the incumbency advantages
• Major political tidal wave may defeat incumbents (Newt Gingrich’s republican revolution, potentially we will see a Blue Wave in the 2018 midterm elections where the Democrats retake control of Congress)

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But don’t people hate Congress and politicians?

The short answer is Yes. Congress has an approval rating between 10-15%, yet the re-election rate for the individuals that make up Congress is incredibly high. Why does there appear to be such a contradiction between opinion polls and the outcomes of elections? The answer is relatively simple; people hate “Congress” as a collective body, but usually approve of their individual Member of Congress. This is similar to people complaining about parliament in the UK, but then saying that their local MP is quite good. Around 46% of people approve of their Member of Congress – much higher than the 10-15% approval rating for Congress as a whole. This means that is much easier to criticise and institution than an individual – if you know (or think you know) your MP or representative, you are much less likely to be overly critical.

Interestingly, Chris Cillizza (Washington Post) explains that “There’s a natural tendency to assume your guy or gal isn’t like everyone else — how could they be bad since you voted for them? — and they are doing everything they can to make things better up there/down there/out there in Washington. Second, it’s clear that the voters paying the most attention — as in those who can, you know, name who represents them — are far more positive about their Members’ service than the average person in the district.  Voters paying more attention are, of course, much more likely to vote and, therefore, the sample of people actually turning out on election day tends to be favorably inclined toward their Member. That, in turn, makes the incumbent’s re-election much more likely.”

So even though Congress’ approval ratings are very low – this has surprisingly little bearing on re-election rates.

POTENTIAL EXAM QUESTION: Assess the extent to which incumbents have an advantage over challengers in Congressional elections.

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Bare percentages suggest that incumbents have a considerable advantage over challengers;

• HoR incumbent success rate is usually above 90% and Senate above 80.
• Incumbency in the House is so potent that it is not unusual for congressional districts to be uncontested;
• Senate elections are almost always fairly keenly contested because of the greater prestige of a Senate seat.
• Because of gerrymandering, many House representatives are more likely to face a meaningful challenge in their party’s primary than the general election.

Reasons for incumbents’ success include:

• gerrymandering & ‘safe’ states
• their track record of ‘pork’ generation
• name recognition & fund-raising prowess
• perks of office, e.g. free franking

However, there were more competitive House districts in 2010 than for many years, and HoR incumbency was at a 30 year low of 87%.