What do the 2016 local elections tell us?
18th May 2016
Although units at A-level focus on the national government, it is useful to examine local election results and explore what the reveal about the national government’s popularity and then the pressure poor results can place on a national government (and the expectations that can be raised when results are positive).
On the 5th May 2016 there were a whole host of elections that took place; Scottish parliament, Welsh Aseembly, Northern Ireland Assembly, Local council elections, Mayor of London and the London Assembly, directly elected mayors in 3 cities, alongside 2 Westminster by elections and the police and crime commissioner elections. A busy day!
So what happened?
In England, not much changed in terms of which political parties controlled which local councils. However, when you look closer at which political party won which seats, there is a clearer picture.
Labour lost 18 councillors, but held on to control of all but one of its 58 councils: Dudley, and gained control of Bristol.
The Conservatives lost 48 council seats. The party lost control of two councils, but gained control of Peterborough.
The Lib Dems gained 45 councillors in total, and won back Watford council from no overall control.
UKIP gained 25 more council seats – but was not able to convert these gains into control of any council.
Why is this useful?
Local and regional elections are used as a key indicator for the popularity of both the party of government (how effectively they govern, how far they have implemented their manifesto, how well they have survived political scandal etc), but also for the popularity of the opposition parties (how effectively do they challenge the government, how well are they organised, how popular are their ideas, how popular is their leader etc).
What can the results tell us?
Polls had suggested that Labour was about to suffer their worst council defeat in opposition in 34 years, but the results proved better than expected. However, any optimism about a resurgence in popularity for Labour and Corbyn should be tempered with the realit of losing councillors, alongside Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly seats.
How can the results help us predict the future?
Excluding general election years, there have only been six times that the government has outperformed the opposition in local elections since 1979. Every time this has happened, the government secured re-election at the next general election. Have Labour already lost the general election of 2020?
Further Reading
Guide to May 2016 elections in Wales, England and Northern Ireland (BBC)
0 Comments